Week 3 in Review

George Springer

After draft day the best opportunity to get an exciting player is when a promising high ceiling prospect is being called up. In the last years we got accustomed to these players arriving at the majors no earlier than late May or early June.

Springer was drafted by the Houston Astros in the 1st round (11th pick) of the 2011 amateur draft. Baseball America ranked him #18 on the 2014 top 100 prospects. He has a power speed combination although his high strike rate prevents him from being a real elite player.

His early call, it is still April, caught me by surprise and by the time I checked the waiver wire in the John Marzano Listeners league he was already gone.  Although there’s a risk with every rookie, Springer projection for this season looks very promising.  Pecota project him for a .244/.327/.440 line, 68 RBI, 24 HR & 29 SB.

If you missed on Springer, looking ahead to the next big call up the best candidates are Arizona’s RHP Archie Bradley, Pittsburgh’s OF Gregory Polanco and couple of Mets pitchers Noah Syndergaard and Rafael Montero.

 Ike Davis

In a previous post I wrote it looks like if Ike is going to repeat his 2011-12 numbers it won’t be with the Mets. Well, Davis was traded to the Pirates and is going to be their everyday first baseman. Now it is all up to him to show if he still can be a productive player.

Weekly Transactions

I dropped Oswaldo Arcia when he went on the DL and picked Juan Uribe.  Arcia had a poor start for the season but I wasn’t worried about that. What made me drop him was the nature of his injury – his wrist. Wrist injuries are notorious for long time of recovery and sapping power. We have Two DL spots in the John Marzano Listeners League. One is occupied by Mike Minor and I preferred to save the other for Kole Calhoun.

I picked Uribe for two reasons. With Kyle Seager struggling I wanted insurance for 3^rd base/corner infield.  I picked him on Thursday to fill a roster spot and got a homerun from him on Friday. Even though Uribe isn’t a great player he has a nice start and I plan on using him while he’s productive.

In a second transaction I swapped outfielders: Josh Reddick out David Murphy in. Looks like Reddick became a platoon players playing only against righties. I drafted him at the start of the 18^th round thinking he’ll rebound from the bad year he had in 2013, but his performance since the season start wasn’t encouraging.  Like Reddick Murphy had a bad 2013 (.656 ops compared to .729 and .859 in 2011/12 respectively.) So far he has a nice .884 OPS and .382 wOBA.

The Hitchhiker Guide to the Galaxy

One of my favorite Sci-Fi books and one of the funniest books I ever read. Besides its zany humor the book is filled with little life lessons like the many uses of towels. But It’s most important advice is written in big letters on the cover: DON’T PANICK.

In a 12 teams auction league I play in, Jed Gyorko was dropped. At the draft his owner paid for him $10, not a minor buy. What happened since the draft date? Not much. Gyorko doesn’t have the best start of the season and he’s batting below .200. On the other hand he has a HR and seven RBIs. The point is any player can have a couple of week’s slump; if it happens in June nobody will get excited over it. In April there are no previous stats so the numbers cause owners to overreact.

In the John Marzano MLB.com Listeners League I’ve drafted Albert Pujols as my first baseman. At the beginning of the fourth round I thought was a nice value pick. I believed that after couple of down years due to injury Pujols will be healthier this season and even if he won’t be an MVP candidate like he was in St. Louis he’ll have a decent enough season. The first weak he was a disaster: no HR and only one RBI. Now he has 4 HR and 9 RBI and he ranks 10^th among first basemen in Yahoo! Leagues.

If Pujols was a nice pick, I can’t say the same for Ike Davis. I picked him at the beginning of the 24^th round, as my corner infield. As a Mets fan I’ve been following Davis since he came to the majors and I thought that after couple of down years, some due to injuries, he’ll be able to get back to the level he performed in his rookie season. Unfortunately it looks like if he’ll ever do that it won’t be with the Mets. Davis lost the first base job to Lucas Duda, and except for one game winning grand slam he didn’t show much offensive skills.

So what to do? How do you know to stick with Pujols and drop Ike? There’s a 411 rule of thumb for that! There are 26 weeks in a fantasy season. You should keep your first round pick until the last week of the season. The flier pick on the last round can be dropped after a week or two. I’m a big fan of this rule. It makes sense and it helps you avoid overreacting and at the same time give you a guideline when it’s time to drop a player.

A good reason to drop a player early can be an injury. If it’s a long term injury and you have no DL slot or it’s already occupied, dropping the player can be unavoidable.

If your fifth outfielder or fifth pitcher doesn’t play on a certain day you can drop them to pick someone who does play just to maximize your playing time.

First Week Insights and some more on Closers

Bobby Parnell, Casey Janssen, Jim Henderson, Nate Jones. What they all have in common? During spring trainings all four were supposed to serve of the closer in their respective teams. Couple of days after the season started, they all lost that role, at least temporarily. Parnell, Jones & Janssen got hurt; Henderson lost the job after one outing.

Apparently, here is another proof for the “Don’t pay for saves” approach, but is it really?

Another thing that all four pitchers have in common is that none of them is what we call a “Top Tier” closer. (It is true that Aroldis Chapman who is certainly a top tier closer, also got hurt and lost his job, but that happened during spring trainings and if you waited with your draft like I suggested in a previous post, you were ready with an alternative.)

For me, what happened with those four pitchers is another proof that investing in top tier closers is not a waste. When you draft someone like Kimbrel, Holland or Rosenthal, you get a top number of saves. You also get a sense of security that they are going to hold to their position. Anyone can get injured, especially a pitcher, but with a top tier closer you don’t have to worry that your closer will lose his role due to performance issues.

As long as we’re talking pitching injuries we can’t avoid mentioning the two top pitchers in baseball Clayton Kershaw and Yu Darvish who both went on the DL the first week of the season. Darvish came back on Sunday, but Kershaw is probably going to miss the rest of April. And that’s kids why we don’t take pitchers on the first round of the draft.

Any attempt to analyze players performance after a weak is bound to suffer from the Small Sample Size syndrome.  I’m sure no one who played fantasy baseball more than couple of days expects Emilio Bonifacio to be a top 10 player when the season ends, or that Cliff Lee will still have 6.00 era come October.

But, how about José Fernández? His below one era may climb before the season is over but his whip may not rise much more and his strike rate may also stick. Or Giancarlo Stanton? Again, his batting average won’t stay .360 but his home runs & rbi rate can continue. In short how can we make the distinction between a hot start and a breakout season?   Obviously there isn’t one end all answer but one type of players that has a better chance is young, healthy, non rookie players.  Players like Stanton, Belt, Goldschmidt they all have enough experience in the big league; they all showed signs of talent and are still young enough to have their peak in front of them.

On my last post I talked about Catchers and why some people will not draft them early (or pay big sums in an auction). The John Marzano Listeners League is 12 teams two Catchers league. If you wait too much on catchers you’ll end up with very poor production players. My strategy was to take one top catcher and then wait for the very late rounds to take the other one. My first catcher in the beginning of the 7^th round was Brian McCann (third catcher off the board), who I liked in Atlanta and love as a Yankee. I wanted either Joe Mauer or Carlos Santana, mainly because they’ll have the benefit of catcher eligibility while playing other positions, but both of them were taken earlier.  My second catcher was Jarrod Saltalamacchia, the last pick of the 23^rd round. He won’t help with average, but I think he’ll be a cheap source of power in a position that usually lack power and in the 23^rd round the price is really low.

A new Season

The 2014 Baseball season has arrived at last. After a two games series in Australia and another game in L.A. we have a full slate of games on Monday. The John Marzano MLB.com Listeners League held its draft on Sunday and we're ready to go. 

First, a word about the draft's timing. I'm a big believer in drafting as late as possible. This way you avoid all kind of unpleasant surprises like a pitcher out for the year with a TJ surgery, a position player tearing a hamstring or any other spring training injury. Plus, you get the latest information on the different position battles like who is going to close for team A or who will play second base for team B (Of course if you are a Mets fan or for some reason thinking of drafting a Met other than David Wright or Zack Wheeler this doesn’t concern you). Drafting late also allow you to know who’s agent is too greedy to get his player a contract ( looking at you Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales).

Draft Summery

The John Marzano Listeners League is 12 teams, 5x5 league. The roster consists of

2 catchers

First baseman

Second baseman

Third baseman

Shortstop

5 outfielders

Middle infielder

Corner infielder

Utility

9 pitchers

5 bench slots

2 DL slots.

With 28 rounds it’s quite a deep draft especially when you have to draft 2 catchers. My philosophy coming to the draft is to invest more in hitters over pitching. The rational is that in 12 teams league a lot of good pitching performance van be found on the waiver wire. Couple of other reasons to wait on pitchers:

   Hitters are more predictable than pitchers from year to year.

   Hitters tend to get hurt less than pitchers.

Although I like to wait on starting pitchers I like to get at least 2 top closers even if it means investing a relatively early pick. Closers are one of the more controversial subjects in fantasy baseball. People like Matthew Berry swear by the motto “Don’t pay for saves” The argument there is that every season a large number of pitchers who start as closers don’t end it in that role. That is like Berry like to say “Factually correct”, but the 411’s conclusion, which I adhere to, is the opposite; the fact that many closers lose their role means those who keep their role throughout the season are more valuable.  Another reason to draft closer early is that the top tier of closers will contribute not just saves but strikes and even low era and whip.

Another issue is when to take catchers. A lot of fantasy players would not consider taking any catcher in the early rounds. There are a few arguments for that: Catchers usually play fewer games than other position players because of the heavy attrition of catching. A catcher will never play both games of a double header and it’s rare to see a catcher play a day game after a night game. A lot of catchers win their job for their defense and many teams will settle for a mediocre offensive catcher if his defense is good enough.

Having the 12 slot in the draft I had to plan for two players whenever my turn came. For my first pick I hoped to get Adrian Beltre who was ranked 12^th by Yahoo (A very steady good player, play 3B which is a relatively shallow position this season) but he was drafted at the 9th slot. My alternative was Robinson Cano (a very steady good player and I’m not concern about the move to Seattle.)

Here is my full roster. I hope to refer to several other picks in future posts.

Netanya Lilings
1.            (12)          Robinson Canó (Sea - 2B)
2.            (13)          Hanley Ramírez (LAD - SS)
3.            (36)          Álex Ríos (Tex - OF)
4.            (37)          Albert Pujols (LAA - 1B)
5.            (60)          Greg Holland (KC - P)
6.            (61)          Trevor Rosenthal (StL - P)
7.            (84)          Brian McCann (NYY - C)
8.            (85)          Matt Cain (SF - P)
9.            (108)        Jayson Werth (Was - OF)
10.           (109)        Austin Jackson (Det - OF)
11.           (132)        Kyle Seager (Sea - 3B)
12.           (133)        Mike Minor (Atl - P)
13.           (156)        Norichika Aoki (KC - OF)
14.           (157)        Kole Calhoun (LAA - OF)
15.           (180)        Starlin Castro (ChC - SS)
16.           (181)        Hiroki Kuroda (NYY - P)
17.           (204)        Kolten Wong (StL - 2B)
18.           (205)        Josh Reddick (Oak - OF)
19.           (228)        Melky Cabrera (Tor - OF)
20.           (229)        Chris Carter (Hou - 1B,OF)
21.           (252)        Ian Kennedy (SD - P)
22.           (253)        Ángel Pagán (SF - OF)
23.           (276)        Jarrod Saltalamacchia (Mia - C)
24.           (277)        Ike Davis (NYM - 1B)
25.           (300)        Kyle Lohse (Mil - P)
26.           (301)        Joaquín Benoit (SD - P)
27.           (324)        Phil Hughes (Min - P)

28.           (325)        Oswaldo Arcia (Min - OF)

Nothing last forever

Hitters hit

One of the 411 favorite sayings is Hitters hit. Fantasy baseball is filled with uncertainties. Every move is a gamble: from the draft picks to the day to day managing of your team. In this ocean of doubt you have one island of predictability: a good hitter will hit, even if he had a slow start, even if he's in a long slump; Once a player demonstrate an ability it's his.
But like in real life, nothing last forever. Only two years ago Albert Pujols was "King Albert", the best player in baseball. Since then his OPS went down from .906 to .859 to .761. From the first pick overall Pujols dropped to outside the top 5 1st basemen. My point? Hitters Hit - until they don't.
Another question that “Hitters Hit” brings up is how you know what is player’s x “real” level?  Take for example player X.  

Year	Age	Obp	HR
2010	23	.361	19
2011	24	.383	7
2012	25	.308	32
2013	26	.256	5

If you haven’t guessed yet player X is Ike Davis. Usually we can expect a young player to improve until a peak around age 27. What can you say about Davis’s level? Is he the 2010 player who had .791 OPS in over 500 at bats? Is he the .659 Ops player in ~ 270 at bats before the all star break in 2012 or maybe the .888 Ops player in ~250 at bats after the ASG that year?

The previous week

Streaming pitchers

Straily 6.1 ip, 7 K's,  whip <1 and a win.
Héctor Santiago 5.1 ip, 3 K's, 2 ER.
I picked R. Nolasco after he was traded to the Dodgers but kept him on the bench at Arizona and missed a very nice start with 7 ip, 1 ER and 5 K's. I guess the move will increase Nolasco's value just because the Dodgers are a better team than the Marlins  and he'll face weaker offenses in the NL West.

Middle relievers

I had a nice view from Smyly with 3.1 ip,  3 K's a win and whip &era <1.
Alex Torres had 2.1 ip, 2 K's a win and whip &era <1.

Closers

At last a productive week from my closers. Betancourt had 3 saves, Nathan two with era & whip < 1. Putz still pitching in middle relief, but at least he had couple of good outings.

Position Players

I think I may finally found a decent catcher in Wilson Ramos. Not much of counting stats, but .316 BA and a hr last week. I’ll take that from a catcher in a two catchers league, especially when my number one catcher, Jonathan Lucroy, finally has the kind of week I expected of him when I drafted him.

Chasing Saves

Chasing Saves

To pay or not to pay, that is the question. Should you pay for saves on draft day? It may be the biggest argument in the fantasy baseball world.

On the one hand, those who oppose paying argue that every year almost 30% of the closers who finish the season don’t hold that position on opening day. You can always pick one of those new closers during the season so there’s no need to pay for closers during the draft. 

On the other hand, those who advocate paying argue that the closers who get replaced during the season are (excluding injury) most of the time marginal ones. If you want security you better get at least one elite closer, or preferably two, who you can count on to get you not just saves, but good era, whip and in some cases even k’s.

As for getting new closers during the season that’s a risky business. First of all, you are not the only one who’s going to jump on a new closer and there is no guarantee you will beat the other league members to get him. Then there is the risk that the new closer doesn’t hold that position for long. Look what happened with the Red Sox or the Brewers closers this season. Finally, the new closer may get you saves but hurt your era and whip.

One strategy to avoid paying for closers is to draft middle relievers who have a good chance of taking over the position during the season. However as the 411 teaches us: The Road to Fifth Place is Littered With Closers of the Future.

The previous week

I have done very little streaming last week as my pace exceeded my innings limit. I got Miguel Gonzalez who pitched against the Yankees on Friday. He allowed just one run in six ip and got four k’s, but no decision as the Orioles closer blew the save.

I have two middle relievers on my roster. I picked Steve Delbar on July 2^nd but he hasn’t pitched since. Drew Smyly had a nice week with 5 k’s in three ip with 0 era and 0.33 whip.

J.J. Putz came back from the dl last weekend, but didn’t have any saves yet. He actually blew his first save chance and didn’t get another one. I’m still counting on Heath Bell to pitch bad and lose the closer role.

Another closer back from the dl, Rafael Betancourt, faired a little better. He pitched 2 innings. A perfect one where he got the win, and another one where he gave a solo hr.

One of my offense week points is sb so I picked up Rajai Davis on July 1^st and of course he didn’t have a sb since while batting below 0.200. Another player whom I picked for sb is Ben Revere. He didn’t have any last week, but at least he’s keeping a high batting average.

 On another week point, Catchers, I had a little more success after picking Wilson Ramos who had a nice game on Friday with three rbi’s and a run while going 2 for 4.

What is in a category?

Today most fantasy baseball league play a 5x5 game 5 hitting categories (Batting average, runs, home runs, rbi and stolen bases) and 5 pitching categories (wins, era, whip, saves and k’s ), but that wasn’t always the case. When the first Rotisserie leagues were formed they played a 4x4 game. Runs and K’s were not counted for back then.  

No matter what version you play you need to win the maximum points in order to win the game and here comes the first lesson: in order to win a category you don’t need to dominate it all it takes is ONE more stolen base, home run or Win to win the respective category. This means that when building a fantasy team balance should be the guide.

Another interesting question regarding the different categories is what is the most important one? Is it home runs? After all when you get a home run you also get a run, at least one rbi and it counts for your average. Maybe something scarce like stolen bases or saves? For me, the answer is none of the above. For me the answer is playing time. You can’t get stats (at least the counting stats) if your players don’t play, so I always try to make sure to maximize my players playing time whether pitchers or position players. 

The previous week

My pitching is keep killing me. I lost Anibal Sánchez to the dl and Dan Straily to the minors. Betancourt is still on the dl and I picked J.J. Putz who’s supposed to come back from the dl this weekend to enhance my closers.

Not much help from streaming pitchers either. Kluber got a win but allowed 3 runs in 5.2 ip and got only 4 k’s. Lyles was even worse. He Allowed 8 runs in 5 ip with only 3 k’s against the cubs.

Andrew Cashner had a nice start against the Dodgers: 8 ip, one run on five hits, but only two k’s and no win. Eric Stults against the Phillies went 7 ip, two runs on seven hits but only four k’s and no win. Joe Saunders was another disaster. At homeagainst the light hitting Pirates 1.2 ip and six runs. Oy!

I’d like to use that Lyles outing to make a point. Lyles is a rhp, the cubs are 20th in the league against righties. In his previous 7 outings Lyles allowed no more than 2 runs in a start. Five of them qualified as Quality Starts ( at least 6 ip and no more than 3 runs allowed). My point? Sometimes all the numbers crunching won’t give you the requested results but it doesn't mean I feel bad about it. Like the 411 taught us “Don't Confuse the Outcome with the Decision”