A new Season

The 2014 Baseball season has arrived at last. After a two games series in Australia and another game in L.A. we have a full slate of games on Monday. The John Marzano MLB.com Listeners League held its draft on Sunday and we're ready to go. 

First, a word about the draft's timing. I'm a big believer in drafting as late as possible. This way you avoid all kind of unpleasant surprises like a pitcher out for the year with a TJ surgery, a position player tearing a hamstring or any other spring training injury. Plus, you get the latest information on the different position battles like who is going to close for team A or who will play second base for team B (Of course if you are a Mets fan or for some reason thinking of drafting a Met other than David Wright or Zack Wheeler this doesn’t concern you). Drafting late also allow you to know who’s agent is too greedy to get his player a contract ( looking at you Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales).

Draft Summery

The John Marzano Listeners League is 12 teams, 5x5 league. The roster consists of

2 catchers

First baseman

Second baseman

Third baseman

Shortstop

5 outfielders

Middle infielder

Corner infielder

Utility

9 pitchers

5 bench slots

2 DL slots.

With 28 rounds it’s quite a deep draft especially when you have to draft 2 catchers. My philosophy coming to the draft is to invest more in hitters over pitching. The rational is that in 12 teams league a lot of good pitching performance van be found on the waiver wire. Couple of other reasons to wait on pitchers:

   Hitters are more predictable than pitchers from year to year.

   Hitters tend to get hurt less than pitchers.

Although I like to wait on starting pitchers I like to get at least 2 top closers even if it means investing a relatively early pick. Closers are one of the more controversial subjects in fantasy baseball. People like Matthew Berry swear by the motto “Don’t pay for saves” The argument there is that every season a large number of pitchers who start as closers don’t end it in that role. That is like Berry like to say “Factually correct”, but the 411’s conclusion, which I adhere to, is the opposite; the fact that many closers lose their role means those who keep their role throughout the season are more valuable.  Another reason to draft closer early is that the top tier of closers will contribute not just saves but strikes and even low era and whip.

Another issue is when to take catchers. A lot of fantasy players would not consider taking any catcher in the early rounds. There are a few arguments for that: Catchers usually play fewer games than other position players because of the heavy attrition of catching. A catcher will never play both games of a double header and it’s rare to see a catcher play a day game after a night game. A lot of catchers win their job for their defense and many teams will settle for a mediocre offensive catcher if his defense is good enough.

Having the 12 slot in the draft I had to plan for two players whenever my turn came. For my first pick I hoped to get Adrian Beltre who was ranked 12^th by Yahoo (A very steady good player, play 3B which is a relatively shallow position this season) but he was drafted at the 9th slot. My alternative was Robinson Cano (a very steady good player and I’m not concern about the move to Seattle.)

Here is my full roster. I hope to refer to several other picks in future posts.

Netanya Lilings
1.            (12)          Robinson Canó (Sea - 2B)
2.            (13)          Hanley Ramírez (LAD - SS)
3.            (36)          Álex Ríos (Tex - OF)
4.            (37)          Albert Pujols (LAA - 1B)
5.            (60)          Greg Holland (KC - P)
6.            (61)          Trevor Rosenthal (StL - P)
7.            (84)          Brian McCann (NYY - C)
8.            (85)          Matt Cain (SF - P)
9.            (108)        Jayson Werth (Was - OF)
10.           (109)        Austin Jackson (Det - OF)
11.           (132)        Kyle Seager (Sea - 3B)
12.           (133)        Mike Minor (Atl - P)
13.           (156)        Norichika Aoki (KC - OF)
14.           (157)        Kole Calhoun (LAA - OF)
15.           (180)        Starlin Castro (ChC - SS)
16.           (181)        Hiroki Kuroda (NYY - P)
17.           (204)        Kolten Wong (StL - 2B)
18.           (205)        Josh Reddick (Oak - OF)
19.           (228)        Melky Cabrera (Tor - OF)
20.           (229)        Chris Carter (Hou - 1B,OF)
21.           (252)        Ian Kennedy (SD - P)
22.           (253)        Ángel Pagán (SF - OF)
23.           (276)        Jarrod Saltalamacchia (Mia - C)
24.           (277)        Ike Davis (NYM - 1B)
25.           (300)        Kyle Lohse (Mil - P)
26.           (301)        Joaquín Benoit (SD - P)
27.           (324)        Phil Hughes (Min - P)

28.           (325)        Oswaldo Arcia (Min - OF)

Too much #want

The challenges of streaming

There are many advantages for streaming pitchers in fantasy baseball. It allows you to draft better position players, you avoid the risk of your top draft picks getting hurt (pitchers are more prone to injuries) and lost for the season. You can get daily production instead of only once every five days. Most importantly, you get more consistent production from hitters.  

But how do you make sure you pick the right players? How you avoid the pitfalls on the way?

First of all you have to check your innings (or starts) limit. Many leagues have some kind of limit on using pitchers may it be by innings pitched or by number of starts. You want to manage your starts wisely and don’t over use it.

The worst thing is to reach your limit too early. You’ll find yourself with useless pitchers which you can’t even trade because the other players in your league realize you can’t use anymore and they won’t be willing to pay anything.

If you reach your limit too soon you’re also setting a clear target to other players in the league who are chasing you in the different pitching categories, knowing you won’t be able to change anything.

Another mistake is trying to compensate for a bad outing. Let’s say one of your pitchers had a bad outing, it happens. You shouldn’t try to pick someone the next day just to compensate for that bad outing. Keep your emotions away and look for the right opportunity. Don’t try to force it.

How do you find the right pitcher to stream?

Take a look at the probable starters. Not today’s because if you are playing in a competitive league most chances they’re already gone. Check their last couple of starts; look at their k’s to ip and k’s to bb ratios. Remember, it’s hard to predict wins as they depend on many factors not in the pitcher’s control. You want a pitcher that will give you something regardless of the win.

Two other factors to consider are the opponent and the location of the game. Check the offensive stats for the rival team. If the team is ranked low in scoring you can feel better. Same is true if the opponent is going to play without key players due to injury or a day off.

Most times you want to avoid pitchers in Coors. Wrigley can be hitters friendly on a hot day or if the wind is blowing out, but it can be more pitchers friendly on a night game. Texas is another place to avoid in the summer. On the other hand, any start at Petco, Safeco, Oakland Coliseum or Citi Field is favorable to the pitchers. In most cases you’d like a pitcher pitching at home, especially if  home is a pitcher’s friendly park.

The  Previous week

Not the best week. Lost some points on my pitching due to bad streaming. Will have to do better next week.