What is in a category?

Today most fantasy baseball league play a 5x5 game 5 hitting categories (Batting average, runs, home runs, rbi and stolen bases) and 5 pitching categories (wins, era, whip, saves and k’s ), but that wasn’t always the case. When the first Rotisserie leagues were formed they played a 4x4 game. Runs and K’s were not counted for back then.  

No matter what version you play you need to win the maximum points in order to win the game and here comes the first lesson: in order to win a category you don’t need to dominate it all it takes is ONE more stolen base, home run or Win to win the respective category. This means that when building a fantasy team balance should be the guide.

Another interesting question regarding the different categories is what is the most important one? Is it home runs? After all when you get a home run you also get a run, at least one rbi and it counts for your average. Maybe something scarce like stolen bases or saves? For me, the answer is none of the above. For me the answer is playing time. You can’t get stats (at least the counting stats) if your players don’t play, so I always try to make sure to maximize my players playing time whether pitchers or position players. 

The previous week

My pitching is keep killing me. I lost Anibal Sánchez to the dl and Dan Straily to the minors. Betancourt is still on the dl and I picked J.J. Putz who’s supposed to come back from the dl this weekend to enhance my closers.

Not much help from streaming pitchers either. Kluber got a win but allowed 3 runs in 5.2 ip and got only 4 k’s. Lyles was even worse. He Allowed 8 runs in 5 ip with only 3 k’s against the cubs.

Andrew Cashner had a nice start against the Dodgers: 8 ip, one run on five hits, but only two k’s and no win. Eric Stults against the Phillies went 7 ip, two runs on seven hits but only four k’s and no win. Joe Saunders was another disaster. At homeagainst the light hitting Pirates 1.2 ip and six runs. Oy!

I’d like to use that Lyles outing to make a point. Lyles is a rhp, the cubs are 20th in the league against righties. In his previous 7 outings Lyles allowed no more than 2 runs in a start. Five of them qualified as Quality Starts ( at least 6 ip and no more than 3 runs allowed). My point? Sometimes all the numbers crunching won’t give you the requested results but it doesn't mean I feel bad about it. Like the 411 taught us “Don't Confuse the Outcome with the Decision”

 

Too much #want

The challenges of streaming

There are many advantages for streaming pitchers in fantasy baseball. It allows you to draft better position players, you avoid the risk of your top draft picks getting hurt (pitchers are more prone to injuries) and lost for the season. You can get daily production instead of only once every five days. Most importantly, you get more consistent production from hitters.  

But how do you make sure you pick the right players? How you avoid the pitfalls on the way?

First of all you have to check your innings (or starts) limit. Many leagues have some kind of limit on using pitchers may it be by innings pitched or by number of starts. You want to manage your starts wisely and don’t over use it.

The worst thing is to reach your limit too early. You’ll find yourself with useless pitchers which you can’t even trade because the other players in your league realize you can’t use anymore and they won’t be willing to pay anything.

If you reach your limit too soon you’re also setting a clear target to other players in the league who are chasing you in the different pitching categories, knowing you won’t be able to change anything.

Another mistake is trying to compensate for a bad outing. Let’s say one of your pitchers had a bad outing, it happens. You shouldn’t try to pick someone the next day just to compensate for that bad outing. Keep your emotions away and look for the right opportunity. Don’t try to force it.

How do you find the right pitcher to stream?

Take a look at the probable starters. Not today’s because if you are playing in a competitive league most chances they’re already gone. Check their last couple of starts; look at their k’s to ip and k’s to bb ratios. Remember, it’s hard to predict wins as they depend on many factors not in the pitcher’s control. You want a pitcher that will give you something regardless of the win.

Two other factors to consider are the opponent and the location of the game. Check the offensive stats for the rival team. If the team is ranked low in scoring you can feel better. Same is true if the opponent is going to play without key players due to injury or a day off.

Most times you want to avoid pitchers in Coors. Wrigley can be hitters friendly on a hot day or if the wind is blowing out, but it can be more pitchers friendly on a night game. Texas is another place to avoid in the summer. On the other hand, any start at Petco, Safeco, Oakland Coliseum or Citi Field is favorable to the pitchers. In most cases you’d like a pitcher pitching at home, especially if  home is a pitcher’s friendly park.

The  Previous week

Not the best week. Lost some points on my pitching due to bad streaming. Will have to do better next week.

The Young Ones

The Draft

The Rule 4 draft aka the amateur draft took place last week.  Unlike the NBA or the NFL the MLB draft doesn't get much attention. There are two connected reasons that explain that: College baseball isn't as popular as college football or even basketball and of course unlike the two other sports the players in the baseball draft don’t have immediate impact on the game. In both Basketball and football you can expect players fresh from the draft to take a role in the pro level. In baseball college players can wait two-three years in the minors and players drafted out of high school can wait even longer before they are ready to the show.

The relatively long time between the draft and the promotion to the majors bring a large measure of uncertainty to rookies’ level of performance in both real and fantasy baseball. For each Mike Trout or Bryce Harper there are many rookies who arrive with a lot of hype which turn out to be a disappointment. For this reason we have to be careful while dealing with rookies in fantasy baseball. We all want to find the next big bat or the next ace before they get pricey just like we all like to brag how smart we were to pick up someone when nobody else thought he was worth picking.

I picked up two highly touted rookies this season. One was Texas’ SS Jurickson Profar who was Baseball Prospectus no. 1 prospect in the pre season. The other, was Seattle’s middle infielder Nick Franklin (no. 72 on list). Baseball is a game of adjustments. New players may come up and have success for a while, but then the league adjusts to them and they have to adjust. 

The previous week

The Lilings gained 5 points last week. mainly thanks to improved pitching. Baltimore's Miguel Gonzalez got us 6 ip, 7 k's,  5 hits and one BB in a win at Houston. Colorado's Jorge De La Rosa was less successful at home against the Padres but he got 5 k's in 5 ip while allowing 4 runs.I needed the k's, but I'm not sure the price in era and whip was worth it.

I also picked couple of middle relievers: Pittsburgh’s Justin Wilson and Colorado’s Adam Ottavino. Wilson had a disaster appearance in which he gave 3 earned runs in 1.1 ip with only one k. Ottavino pitched 2 innings, allowed no runs on 3 hits and one k. I think I can do better on my middle relievers.

I had 2 position players going on the DL last week. Losing catcher Erik Kratz was a big blow in a two catchers league where my catchers aren’t top notch. I ended up picking the White Sox Tyler Flowers, but I’m ready to play the waiver wire and pick up the hot hand. Replacing Texas Mitch Moreland was easier as Corner Infield is deep position this season. This brings me to another 411 lesson: Maximize your playing time. Just like baseball is a game of inches, fantasy baseball is a game of numbers and sometimes a league can be won or lost on one hit, strikeout or RBI. Mondays and Thursdays usually have light schedule during the season which means not all of your positions are manned. That’s where the waiver wire comes through. You can drop a fifth outfielder or a middle reliever and pick a position player who can get you some production. If he’s on a hot streak you can keep him until he gets cold. Sometimes you don’t need Mr. Right, but Mr. right now!