Week 3 in Review

George Springer

After draft day the best opportunity to get an exciting player is when a promising high ceiling prospect is being called up. In the last years we got accustomed to these players arriving at the majors no earlier than late May or early June.

Springer was drafted by the Houston Astros in the 1st round (11th pick) of the 2011 amateur draft. Baseball America ranked him #18 on the 2014 top 100 prospects. He has a power speed combination although his high strike rate prevents him from being a real elite player.

His early call, it is still April, caught me by surprise and by the time I checked the waiver wire in the John Marzano Listeners league he was already gone.  Although there’s a risk with every rookie, Springer projection for this season looks very promising.  Pecota project him for a .244/.327/.440 line, 68 RBI, 24 HR & 29 SB.

If you missed on Springer, looking ahead to the next big call up the best candidates are Arizona’s RHP Archie Bradley, Pittsburgh’s OF Gregory Polanco and couple of Mets pitchers Noah Syndergaard and Rafael Montero.

 Ike Davis

In a previous post I wrote it looks like if Ike is going to repeat his 2011-12 numbers it won’t be with the Mets. Well, Davis was traded to the Pirates and is going to be their everyday first baseman. Now it is all up to him to show if he still can be a productive player.

Weekly Transactions

I dropped Oswaldo Arcia when he went on the DL and picked Juan Uribe.  Arcia had a poor start for the season but I wasn’t worried about that. What made me drop him was the nature of his injury – his wrist. Wrist injuries are notorious for long time of recovery and sapping power. We have Two DL spots in the John Marzano Listeners League. One is occupied by Mike Minor and I preferred to save the other for Kole Calhoun.

I picked Uribe for two reasons. With Kyle Seager struggling I wanted insurance for 3^rd base/corner infield.  I picked him on Thursday to fill a roster spot and got a homerun from him on Friday. Even though Uribe isn’t a great player he has a nice start and I plan on using him while he’s productive.

In a second transaction I swapped outfielders: Josh Reddick out David Murphy in. Looks like Reddick became a platoon players playing only against righties. I drafted him at the start of the 18^th round thinking he’ll rebound from the bad year he had in 2013, but his performance since the season start wasn’t encouraging.  Like Reddick Murphy had a bad 2013 (.656 ops compared to .729 and .859 in 2011/12 respectively.) So far he has a nice .884 OPS and .382 wOBA.

The Young Ones

The Draft

The Rule 4 draft aka the amateur draft took place last week.  Unlike the NBA or the NFL the MLB draft doesn't get much attention. There are two connected reasons that explain that: College baseball isn't as popular as college football or even basketball and of course unlike the two other sports the players in the baseball draft don’t have immediate impact on the game. In both Basketball and football you can expect players fresh from the draft to take a role in the pro level. In baseball college players can wait two-three years in the minors and players drafted out of high school can wait even longer before they are ready to the show.

The relatively long time between the draft and the promotion to the majors bring a large measure of uncertainty to rookies’ level of performance in both real and fantasy baseball. For each Mike Trout or Bryce Harper there are many rookies who arrive with a lot of hype which turn out to be a disappointment. For this reason we have to be careful while dealing with rookies in fantasy baseball. We all want to find the next big bat or the next ace before they get pricey just like we all like to brag how smart we were to pick up someone when nobody else thought he was worth picking.

I picked up two highly touted rookies this season. One was Texas’ SS Jurickson Profar who was Baseball Prospectus no. 1 prospect in the pre season. The other, was Seattle’s middle infielder Nick Franklin (no. 72 on list). Baseball is a game of adjustments. New players may come up and have success for a while, but then the league adjusts to them and they have to adjust. 

The previous week

The Lilings gained 5 points last week. mainly thanks to improved pitching. Baltimore's Miguel Gonzalez got us 6 ip, 7 k's,  5 hits and one BB in a win at Houston. Colorado's Jorge De La Rosa was less successful at home against the Padres but he got 5 k's in 5 ip while allowing 4 runs.I needed the k's, but I'm not sure the price in era and whip was worth it.

I also picked couple of middle relievers: Pittsburgh’s Justin Wilson and Colorado’s Adam Ottavino. Wilson had a disaster appearance in which he gave 3 earned runs in 1.1 ip with only one k. Ottavino pitched 2 innings, allowed no runs on 3 hits and one k. I think I can do better on my middle relievers.

I had 2 position players going on the DL last week. Losing catcher Erik Kratz was a big blow in a two catchers league where my catchers aren’t top notch. I ended up picking the White Sox Tyler Flowers, but I’m ready to play the waiver wire and pick up the hot hand. Replacing Texas Mitch Moreland was easier as Corner Infield is deep position this season. This brings me to another 411 lesson: Maximize your playing time. Just like baseball is a game of inches, fantasy baseball is a game of numbers and sometimes a league can be won or lost on one hit, strikeout or RBI. Mondays and Thursdays usually have light schedule during the season which means not all of your positions are manned. That’s where the waiver wire comes through. You can drop a fifth outfielder or a middle reliever and pick a position player who can get you some production. If he’s on a hot streak you can keep him until he gets cold. Sometimes you don’t need Mr. Right, but Mr. right now!