Nothing last forever

Hitters hit

One of the 411 favorite sayings is Hitters hit. Fantasy baseball is filled with uncertainties. Every move is a gamble: from the draft picks to the day to day managing of your team. In this ocean of doubt you have one island of predictability: a good hitter will hit, even if he had a slow start, even if he's in a long slump; Once a player demonstrate an ability it's his.
But like in real life, nothing last forever. Only two years ago Albert Pujols was "King Albert", the best player in baseball. Since then his OPS went down from .906 to .859 to .761. From the first pick overall Pujols dropped to outside the top 5 1st basemen. My point? Hitters Hit - until they don't.
Another question that “Hitters Hit” brings up is how you know what is player’s x “real” level?  Take for example player X.  

Year	Age	Obp	HR
2010	23	.361	19
2011	24	.383	7
2012	25	.308	32
2013	26	.256	5

If you haven’t guessed yet player X is Ike Davis. Usually we can expect a young player to improve until a peak around age 27. What can you say about Davis’s level? Is he the 2010 player who had .791 OPS in over 500 at bats? Is he the .659 Ops player in ~ 270 at bats before the all star break in 2012 or maybe the .888 Ops player in ~250 at bats after the ASG that year?

The previous week

Streaming pitchers

Straily 6.1 ip, 7 K's,  whip <1 and a win.
Héctor Santiago 5.1 ip, 3 K's, 2 ER.
I picked R. Nolasco after he was traded to the Dodgers but kept him on the bench at Arizona and missed a very nice start with 7 ip, 1 ER and 5 K's. I guess the move will increase Nolasco's value just because the Dodgers are a better team than the Marlins  and he'll face weaker offenses in the NL West.

Middle relievers

I had a nice view from Smyly with 3.1 ip,  3 K's a win and whip &era <1.
Alex Torres had 2.1 ip, 2 K's a win and whip &era <1.

Closers

At last a productive week from my closers. Betancourt had 3 saves, Nathan two with era & whip < 1. Putz still pitching in middle relief, but at least he had couple of good outings.

Position Players

I think I may finally found a decent catcher in Wilson Ramos. Not much of counting stats, but .316 BA and a hr last week. I’ll take that from a catcher in a two catchers league, especially when my number one catcher, Jonathan Lucroy, finally has the kind of week I expected of him when I drafted him.

Chasing Saves

Chasing Saves

To pay or not to pay, that is the question. Should you pay for saves on draft day? It may be the biggest argument in the fantasy baseball world.

On the one hand, those who oppose paying argue that every year almost 30% of the closers who finish the season don’t hold that position on opening day. You can always pick one of those new closers during the season so there’s no need to pay for closers during the draft. 

On the other hand, those who advocate paying argue that the closers who get replaced during the season are (excluding injury) most of the time marginal ones. If you want security you better get at least one elite closer, or preferably two, who you can count on to get you not just saves, but good era, whip and in some cases even k’s.

As for getting new closers during the season that’s a risky business. First of all, you are not the only one who’s going to jump on a new closer and there is no guarantee you will beat the other league members to get him. Then there is the risk that the new closer doesn’t hold that position for long. Look what happened with the Red Sox or the Brewers closers this season. Finally, the new closer may get you saves but hurt your era and whip.

One strategy to avoid paying for closers is to draft middle relievers who have a good chance of taking over the position during the season. However as the 411 teaches us: The Road to Fifth Place is Littered With Closers of the Future.

The previous week

I have done very little streaming last week as my pace exceeded my innings limit. I got Miguel Gonzalez who pitched against the Yankees on Friday. He allowed just one run in six ip and got four k’s, but no decision as the Orioles closer blew the save.

I have two middle relievers on my roster. I picked Steve Delbar on July 2^nd but he hasn’t pitched since. Drew Smyly had a nice week with 5 k’s in three ip with 0 era and 0.33 whip.

J.J. Putz came back from the dl last weekend, but didn’t have any saves yet. He actually blew his first save chance and didn’t get another one. I’m still counting on Heath Bell to pitch bad and lose the closer role.

Another closer back from the dl, Rafael Betancourt, faired a little better. He pitched 2 innings. A perfect one where he got the win, and another one where he gave a solo hr.

One of my offense week points is sb so I picked up Rajai Davis on July 1^st and of course he didn’t have a sb since while batting below 0.200. Another player whom I picked for sb is Ben Revere. He didn’t have any last week, but at least he’s keeping a high batting average.

 On another week point, Catchers, I had a little more success after picking Wilson Ramos who had a nice game on Friday with three rbi’s and a run while going 2 for 4.