A new Season

The 2014 Baseball season has arrived at last. After a two games series in Australia and another game in L.A. we have a full slate of games on Monday. The John Marzano MLB.com Listeners League held its draft on Sunday and we're ready to go. 

First, a word about the draft's timing. I'm a big believer in drafting as late as possible. This way you avoid all kind of unpleasant surprises like a pitcher out for the year with a TJ surgery, a position player tearing a hamstring or any other spring training injury. Plus, you get the latest information on the different position battles like who is going to close for team A or who will play second base for team B (Of course if you are a Mets fan or for some reason thinking of drafting a Met other than David Wright or Zack Wheeler this doesn’t concern you). Drafting late also allow you to know who’s agent is too greedy to get his player a contract ( looking at you Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales).

Draft Summery

The John Marzano Listeners League is 12 teams, 5x5 league. The roster consists of

2 catchers

First baseman

Second baseman

Third baseman

Shortstop

5 outfielders

Middle infielder

Corner infielder

Utility

9 pitchers

5 bench slots

2 DL slots.

With 28 rounds it’s quite a deep draft especially when you have to draft 2 catchers. My philosophy coming to the draft is to invest more in hitters over pitching. The rational is that in 12 teams league a lot of good pitching performance van be found on the waiver wire. Couple of other reasons to wait on pitchers:

   Hitters are more predictable than pitchers from year to year.

   Hitters tend to get hurt less than pitchers.

Although I like to wait on starting pitchers I like to get at least 2 top closers even if it means investing a relatively early pick. Closers are one of the more controversial subjects in fantasy baseball. People like Matthew Berry swear by the motto “Don’t pay for saves” The argument there is that every season a large number of pitchers who start as closers don’t end it in that role. That is like Berry like to say “Factually correct”, but the 411’s conclusion, which I adhere to, is the opposite; the fact that many closers lose their role means those who keep their role throughout the season are more valuable.  Another reason to draft closer early is that the top tier of closers will contribute not just saves but strikes and even low era and whip.

Another issue is when to take catchers. A lot of fantasy players would not consider taking any catcher in the early rounds. There are a few arguments for that: Catchers usually play fewer games than other position players because of the heavy attrition of catching. A catcher will never play both games of a double header and it’s rare to see a catcher play a day game after a night game. A lot of catchers win their job for their defense and many teams will settle for a mediocre offensive catcher if his defense is good enough.

Having the 12 slot in the draft I had to plan for two players whenever my turn came. For my first pick I hoped to get Adrian Beltre who was ranked 12^th by Yahoo (A very steady good player, play 3B which is a relatively shallow position this season) but he was drafted at the 9th slot. My alternative was Robinson Cano (a very steady good player and I’m not concern about the move to Seattle.)

Here is my full roster. I hope to refer to several other picks in future posts.

Netanya Lilings
1.            (12)          Robinson Canó (Sea - 2B)
2.            (13)          Hanley Ramírez (LAD - SS)
3.            (36)          Álex Ríos (Tex - OF)
4.            (37)          Albert Pujols (LAA - 1B)
5.            (60)          Greg Holland (KC - P)
6.            (61)          Trevor Rosenthal (StL - P)
7.            (84)          Brian McCann (NYY - C)
8.            (85)          Matt Cain (SF - P)
9.            (108)        Jayson Werth (Was - OF)
10.           (109)        Austin Jackson (Det - OF)
11.           (132)        Kyle Seager (Sea - 3B)
12.           (133)        Mike Minor (Atl - P)
13.           (156)        Norichika Aoki (KC - OF)
14.           (157)        Kole Calhoun (LAA - OF)
15.           (180)        Starlin Castro (ChC - SS)
16.           (181)        Hiroki Kuroda (NYY - P)
17.           (204)        Kolten Wong (StL - 2B)
18.           (205)        Josh Reddick (Oak - OF)
19.           (228)        Melky Cabrera (Tor - OF)
20.           (229)        Chris Carter (Hou - 1B,OF)
21.           (252)        Ian Kennedy (SD - P)
22.           (253)        Ángel Pagán (SF - OF)
23.           (276)        Jarrod Saltalamacchia (Mia - C)
24.           (277)        Ike Davis (NYM - 1B)
25.           (300)        Kyle Lohse (Mil - P)
26.           (301)        Joaquín Benoit (SD - P)
27.           (324)        Phil Hughes (Min - P)

28.           (325)        Oswaldo Arcia (Min - OF)

Nothing last forever

Hitters hit

One of the 411 favorite sayings is Hitters hit. Fantasy baseball is filled with uncertainties. Every move is a gamble: from the draft picks to the day to day managing of your team. In this ocean of doubt you have one island of predictability: a good hitter will hit, even if he had a slow start, even if he's in a long slump; Once a player demonstrate an ability it's his.
But like in real life, nothing last forever. Only two years ago Albert Pujols was "King Albert", the best player in baseball. Since then his OPS went down from .906 to .859 to .761. From the first pick overall Pujols dropped to outside the top 5 1st basemen. My point? Hitters Hit - until they don't.
Another question that “Hitters Hit” brings up is how you know what is player’s x “real” level?  Take for example player X.  

Year	Age	Obp	HR
2010	23	.361	19
2011	24	.383	7
2012	25	.308	32
2013	26	.256	5

If you haven’t guessed yet player X is Ike Davis. Usually we can expect a young player to improve until a peak around age 27. What can you say about Davis’s level? Is he the 2010 player who had .791 OPS in over 500 at bats? Is he the .659 Ops player in ~ 270 at bats before the all star break in 2012 or maybe the .888 Ops player in ~250 at bats after the ASG that year?

The previous week

Streaming pitchers

Straily 6.1 ip, 7 K's,  whip <1 and a win.
Héctor Santiago 5.1 ip, 3 K's, 2 ER.
I picked R. Nolasco after he was traded to the Dodgers but kept him on the bench at Arizona and missed a very nice start with 7 ip, 1 ER and 5 K's. I guess the move will increase Nolasco's value just because the Dodgers are a better team than the Marlins  and he'll face weaker offenses in the NL West.

Middle relievers

I had a nice view from Smyly with 3.1 ip,  3 K's a win and whip &era <1.
Alex Torres had 2.1 ip, 2 K's a win and whip &era <1.

Closers

At last a productive week from my closers. Betancourt had 3 saves, Nathan two with era & whip < 1. Putz still pitching in middle relief, but at least he had couple of good outings.

Position Players

I think I may finally found a decent catcher in Wilson Ramos. Not much of counting stats, but .316 BA and a hr last week. I’ll take that from a catcher in a two catchers league, especially when my number one catcher, Jonathan Lucroy, finally has the kind of week I expected of him when I drafted him.