Nothing last forever

Hitters hit

One of the 411 favorite sayings is Hitters hit. Fantasy baseball is filled with uncertainties. Every move is a gamble: from the draft picks to the day to day managing of your team. In this ocean of doubt you have one island of predictability: a good hitter will hit, even if he had a slow start, even if he's in a long slump; Once a player demonstrate an ability it's his.
But like in real life, nothing last forever. Only two years ago Albert Pujols was "King Albert", the best player in baseball. Since then his OPS went down from .906 to .859 to .761. From the first pick overall Pujols dropped to outside the top 5 1st basemen. My point? Hitters Hit - until they don't.
Another question that “Hitters Hit” brings up is how you know what is player’s x “real” level?  Take for example player X.  

Year	Age	Obp	HR
2010	23	.361	19
2011	24	.383	7
2012	25	.308	32
2013	26	.256	5

If you haven’t guessed yet player X is Ike Davis. Usually we can expect a young player to improve until a peak around age 27. What can you say about Davis’s level? Is he the 2010 player who had .791 OPS in over 500 at bats? Is he the .659 Ops player in ~ 270 at bats before the all star break in 2012 or maybe the .888 Ops player in ~250 at bats after the ASG that year?

The previous week

Streaming pitchers

Straily 6.1 ip, 7 K's,  whip <1 and a win.
Héctor Santiago 5.1 ip, 3 K's, 2 ER.
I picked R. Nolasco after he was traded to the Dodgers but kept him on the bench at Arizona and missed a very nice start with 7 ip, 1 ER and 5 K's. I guess the move will increase Nolasco's value just because the Dodgers are a better team than the Marlins  and he'll face weaker offenses in the NL West.

Middle relievers

I had a nice view from Smyly with 3.1 ip,  3 K's a win and whip &era <1.
Alex Torres had 2.1 ip, 2 K's a win and whip &era <1.

Closers

At last a productive week from my closers. Betancourt had 3 saves, Nathan two with era & whip < 1. Putz still pitching in middle relief, but at least he had couple of good outings.

Position Players

I think I may finally found a decent catcher in Wilson Ramos. Not much of counting stats, but .316 BA and a hr last week. I’ll take that from a catcher in a two catchers league, especially when my number one catcher, Jonathan Lucroy, finally has the kind of week I expected of him when I drafted him.

Chasing Saves

Chasing Saves

To pay or not to pay, that is the question. Should you pay for saves on draft day? It may be the biggest argument in the fantasy baseball world.

On the one hand, those who oppose paying argue that every year almost 30% of the closers who finish the season don’t hold that position on opening day. You can always pick one of those new closers during the season so there’s no need to pay for closers during the draft. 

On the other hand, those who advocate paying argue that the closers who get replaced during the season are (excluding injury) most of the time marginal ones. If you want security you better get at least one elite closer, or preferably two, who you can count on to get you not just saves, but good era, whip and in some cases even k’s.

As for getting new closers during the season that’s a risky business. First of all, you are not the only one who’s going to jump on a new closer and there is no guarantee you will beat the other league members to get him. Then there is the risk that the new closer doesn’t hold that position for long. Look what happened with the Red Sox or the Brewers closers this season. Finally, the new closer may get you saves but hurt your era and whip.

One strategy to avoid paying for closers is to draft middle relievers who have a good chance of taking over the position during the season. However as the 411 teaches us: The Road to Fifth Place is Littered With Closers of the Future.

The previous week

I have done very little streaming last week as my pace exceeded my innings limit. I got Miguel Gonzalez who pitched against the Yankees on Friday. He allowed just one run in six ip and got four k’s, but no decision as the Orioles closer blew the save.

I have two middle relievers on my roster. I picked Steve Delbar on July 2^nd but he hasn’t pitched since. Drew Smyly had a nice week with 5 k’s in three ip with 0 era and 0.33 whip.

J.J. Putz came back from the dl last weekend, but didn’t have any saves yet. He actually blew his first save chance and didn’t get another one. I’m still counting on Heath Bell to pitch bad and lose the closer role.

Another closer back from the dl, Rafael Betancourt, faired a little better. He pitched 2 innings. A perfect one where he got the win, and another one where he gave a solo hr.

One of my offense week points is sb so I picked up Rajai Davis on July 1^st and of course he didn’t have a sb since while batting below 0.200. Another player whom I picked for sb is Ben Revere. He didn’t have any last week, but at least he’s keeping a high batting average.

 On another week point, Catchers, I had a little more success after picking Wilson Ramos who had a nice game on Friday with three rbi’s and a run while going 2 for 4.

What is in a category?

Today most fantasy baseball league play a 5x5 game 5 hitting categories (Batting average, runs, home runs, rbi and stolen bases) and 5 pitching categories (wins, era, whip, saves and k’s ), but that wasn’t always the case. When the first Rotisserie leagues were formed they played a 4x4 game. Runs and K’s were not counted for back then.  

No matter what version you play you need to win the maximum points in order to win the game and here comes the first lesson: in order to win a category you don’t need to dominate it all it takes is ONE more stolen base, home run or Win to win the respective category. This means that when building a fantasy team balance should be the guide.

Another interesting question regarding the different categories is what is the most important one? Is it home runs? After all when you get a home run you also get a run, at least one rbi and it counts for your average. Maybe something scarce like stolen bases or saves? For me, the answer is none of the above. For me the answer is playing time. You can’t get stats (at least the counting stats) if your players don’t play, so I always try to make sure to maximize my players playing time whether pitchers or position players. 

The previous week

My pitching is keep killing me. I lost Anibal Sánchez to the dl and Dan Straily to the minors. Betancourt is still on the dl and I picked J.J. Putz who’s supposed to come back from the dl this weekend to enhance my closers.

Not much help from streaming pitchers either. Kluber got a win but allowed 3 runs in 5.2 ip and got only 4 k’s. Lyles was even worse. He Allowed 8 runs in 5 ip with only 3 k’s against the cubs.

Andrew Cashner had a nice start against the Dodgers: 8 ip, one run on five hits, but only two k’s and no win. Eric Stults against the Phillies went 7 ip, two runs on seven hits but only four k’s and no win. Joe Saunders was another disaster. At homeagainst the light hitting Pirates 1.2 ip and six runs. Oy!

I’d like to use that Lyles outing to make a point. Lyles is a rhp, the cubs are 20th in the league against righties. In his previous 7 outings Lyles allowed no more than 2 runs in a start. Five of them qualified as Quality Starts ( at least 6 ip and no more than 3 runs allowed). My point? Sometimes all the numbers crunching won’t give you the requested results but it doesn't mean I feel bad about it. Like the 411 taught us “Don't Confuse the Outcome with the Decision”

 

Too much #want

The challenges of streaming

There are many advantages for streaming pitchers in fantasy baseball. It allows you to draft better position players, you avoid the risk of your top draft picks getting hurt (pitchers are more prone to injuries) and lost for the season. You can get daily production instead of only once every five days. Most importantly, you get more consistent production from hitters.  

But how do you make sure you pick the right players? How you avoid the pitfalls on the way?

First of all you have to check your innings (or starts) limit. Many leagues have some kind of limit on using pitchers may it be by innings pitched or by number of starts. You want to manage your starts wisely and don’t over use it.

The worst thing is to reach your limit too early. You’ll find yourself with useless pitchers which you can’t even trade because the other players in your league realize you can’t use anymore and they won’t be willing to pay anything.

If you reach your limit too soon you’re also setting a clear target to other players in the league who are chasing you in the different pitching categories, knowing you won’t be able to change anything.

Another mistake is trying to compensate for a bad outing. Let’s say one of your pitchers had a bad outing, it happens. You shouldn’t try to pick someone the next day just to compensate for that bad outing. Keep your emotions away and look for the right opportunity. Don’t try to force it.

How do you find the right pitcher to stream?

Take a look at the probable starters. Not today’s because if you are playing in a competitive league most chances they’re already gone. Check their last couple of starts; look at their k’s to ip and k’s to bb ratios. Remember, it’s hard to predict wins as they depend on many factors not in the pitcher’s control. You want a pitcher that will give you something regardless of the win.

Two other factors to consider are the opponent and the location of the game. Check the offensive stats for the rival team. If the team is ranked low in scoring you can feel better. Same is true if the opponent is going to play without key players due to injury or a day off.

Most times you want to avoid pitchers in Coors. Wrigley can be hitters friendly on a hot day or if the wind is blowing out, but it can be more pitchers friendly on a night game. Texas is another place to avoid in the summer. On the other hand, any start at Petco, Safeco, Oakland Coliseum or Citi Field is favorable to the pitchers. In most cases you’d like a pitcher pitching at home, especially if  home is a pitcher’s friendly park.

The  Previous week

Not the best week. Lost some points on my pitching due to bad streaming. Will have to do better next week.